Dr. Zhang is interested in quantifying and understanding climate change in the Polar Regions. He investigates the properties of polar ice-ocean systems by developing large-scale sea ice and ocean models such as the Pan-arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), the Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS), and the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS). He also studies the impact of changes in sea ice on marine planktonic ecosystems by developing biophysical models such as the coupled Biology-Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS). He has developed efficient sea ice dynamics models that are particularly useful for stable, high-resolution modeling. He is interested in developing next-generation sea ice models which capture anisotropic nature of ice dynamics/mechanics and explicitly simulate both ice thickness distribution and floe size distribution jointly. His research results have been published in the Journal of Physical Oceanography, the Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, Monthly Weather Review, Geophysical Research Letters, Ocean Modeling, Deep Sea Research, and other scientific journals. Dr. Zhang joined the Laboratory in 1994.
About Jinlun Zhang
In The News
Last Arctic ice refuge is disappearing
November 12, 2019 – Former UW Arctic Fulbright Chair, Kent Moore with PSC researchers Axel Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang and Mike Steele on how the oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice is disappearing twice as fast as ice in the rest of the Arctic Ocean.
read more »Century-Old Ship Logs Show How Much Ice the Arctic Has Lost
September 17, 2019 – Research by Axel Schweiger and Jinlun Zhang in Collaboration with Kevin Wood from JISAO reconstructs sea ice volume and thickness since 1901.
read more »Shipping logs show how quickly Arctic sea ice is melting
August 13, 2019 – The Economist covers research by Axel Schweiger and Jinlun Zhang in collaboration with Kevin Wood at JISAO. Reconstruction of sea ice thickness and volume since 1901 uses logs from old US revenue cutters traveling in the Arctic in the early 20th century.
read more »EDITOR’S HIGHLIGHTS – A possible link between winter Arctic sea ice decline and a collapse of the Beaufort High?
Axel Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang, and Mike Steele are co-authors on an article that earned the Editor’s Highlight for AGU’s recent Geophysical Research Letters. Read on to learn why the article, Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?, drew such attention…
read more »Stronger winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice
A new modeling study conducted by Dr. Jinlun Zhang to be published in the Journal of Climate shows that stronger polar winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice, even in a warming climate.
read more »
Selected Projects
MIZMAS
The overarching goal of the MIZMAS project is to enhance our understanding of MIZ processes and interactions, and to strengthen our prediction capability of future climate change, particularly the changes in both the ITD and the FSD, in the CBS. We propose numerical investigations of the historical and contemporary changes in the sea ice and upper ocean of the CBSMIZ. We also plan to investigate future changes of the CBSMIZ under global warming scenarios. These investigations involve new and potentially transformative theoretical and numerical work to develop, implement, and validate a new coupled ice–ocean Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS) that will enhance the representation of the unique MIZ processes by incorporating a FSD and corresponding model improvements.
read more »Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly
The Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly time series is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) developed at APL/PSC. Updates will be generated at approximately monthly intervals.
read more »Projections of an Ice-Diminished Arctic Ocean – Retrospection and Future Projection
Significant changes in arctic climate have been detected in recent years. One of the most striking changes is the decline of sea ice concurrent with changes in atmospheric circulation and increased surface air temperature.
read more »
Selected Publications
Bushuk, M., S. Ali, D. A. Bailey, Q. Bao, L. Batt, U. S. Bhatt, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. Blockley, G. Cawley, J. Chi, F. Counillonno, P. G. Coulombe, R. I. Cullather, F. X. Diebold, A. Dirkson, E. Exarchou, M. Gobel, W. Gregory, V. Guemas, L. Hamilton, B. He, S. Horvath, M. Ionita, J. E. Kay, E. Kim, N. Kimura, D. Kondrashov, Z. M. Labe, W. Lee, Y. J. Lee, C. Li, X. Li, Y. Lin, Y. Liu, W. Maslowski, F. Massonnet, W. N. Meier, W. J. Merryfield, H. Myint, J. C. Acosta Navarro, A. Petty, F. Qiao, D. Schroder, A. Schweiger, Q. Shu, M. Sigmond, M. Steele, J. Stroeve, N. Sun, S. Tietsche, M. Tsamados, K. Wang, J. Wang, W. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, J. Williams, Q. Yang, X. Yuan, J. Zhang, & Y. Zhang, Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 105, E1170–E1203, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-
D-23-0163.1 , 2024.Zhang, J., W. Cheng, M. Steele, & W. Weijer, Asymmetrically stratified Beaufort Gyre: Mean state and response to decadal forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, doi:10.1029/2022GL100457, 2023.
Moore, G., Steele, M., Schweiger, A.J., Zhang, J., and Laidre, K.L., Thick and old sea ice in the Beaufort Sea during summer 2020/21 was associated with enhanced transport. Commun Earth Environ 3, 198, doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00530-6, 2022.
Webster, M., Holland, M., Wright, N.C., Hendricks, S., Hutter, N., Itkin, P., Light, B., Linhardt, F., Perovich, D.K., Raphael, I.A., Smith, M.M., Albedyll, L.v., & J. Zhang (2022), Spatiotemporal evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice: MOSAiC observations and model results, Elementa: Sci. of the Anthro. 10, doi:10.1525/elementa.2021.000072.
Zhong, W., S.T. Cole, J. Zhang, R. Lei, and M. Steele, Increasing winter ocean-to-ice heat flux in the Beaufort Gyre region, Arctic Ocean over 2006-2018, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, doi:10.1029/2021GL096216, 2022.
Schweiger, A., M. Steele, J. Zhang, G.W.K. Moore, and K. Laidre, Accelerated sea ice loss in the Wandel Sea points to a change in the Arctic’s Last Ice Area, Nature Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 122, doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00197-5, 2021.
Zhang, J., W. Weijer, M. Steele, W. Cheng, T. Verma, & M. Veneziani, Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release., Nat. Commun., 12, 1229, doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21470-3, 2021.
Zhang, J., Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, & A. Schweiger, Biophysical consequences of a relaxing Beaufort gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085990, doi:10.1029/2019gl085990, 2020.
Moore, G. W. K., Schweiger, A., Zhang, J., & Steele, M., Spatiotemporal variability of sea ice in the arctic’s last ice area. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083722, 2019.
Zhong, W., Zhang, J., Steele, M., Zhao, J., & Wang, T., Episodic extrema of surface stress energy input to the western Arctic Ocean contributed to step changes of freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 12173–12182, doi:10.1029/2019GL084652, 2019.
Schweiger, A.J., K.R. Wood, and J. Zhang, 2019: Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction. J. of Climate, 32, 4731-4752, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1
Zhong, W., Steele, M., Zhang, J., and Cole, S., Circulation of Pacific Winter Water in the Western Arctic Ocean, J. of Geophy. Res., 124. doi:10.1029/2018JC014604, 2019.
Moore, G.W.K., A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, and M. Steele, What caused the remarkable February 2018 North Greenland Polynya? Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, doi:10.1029/
2018GL080902 , 2018.Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Webster, B. Light, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, and Y. Spitz, Melt pond conditions on declining Arctic sea ice over 1979-2016: Model development, validation, and results, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 123, doi:10.1029/
2018JC014298 , 2018.Stern H.L., A.J. Schweiger, M. Stark, J. Zhang, M. Steele, B. Hwang; Seasonal evolution of the sea-ice floe size distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 6(1):48, doi:10.1525/elementa.305, 2018.
Bi, H., J. Zhang, Y. Wang, Z. Zhang, Y. Zhang, M. Fu, H. Huang, and X. Xu, Arctic Sea Ice Volume Changes in Terms of Age as Revealed From Satellite Observations, IEEE Geoscience & Remote Sensing Society, DOI: 10.1109/JSTARS.2018.2823735, 2018.
Moore, G.W.K., Schweiger, A., Zhang, J., & Steele, M.; Collapse of the 2017 winter Beaufort High: A response to thinning sea ice? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2860–2869, doi:10.1002/2017GL076446, 2018.
Eicken, H., A. Mahoney, J. Jones, T. Heinrichs, D. Broderson, H. Statscewich, T. Weingartner, M. Stuefer, T. Ravens, M. Ivey, A. Merten, and J. Zhang, Sustained observations of changing Arctic coastal and marine environments and their potential contribution to Arctic maritime domain awareness: A case study in northern Alaska, Arctic, 71, 1-15., http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/
arctic4622 , 2018.Stern, H., A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, and M. Steele, On reconciling disparate studies of the sea-ice floe size distribution, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 6:49, doi:10.1525/
elementa.304 , 2018.Zhong, W., Steele, M., Zhang, J., & Zhao, J., Greater role of geostrophic currents in Ekman dynamics in the western Arctic Ocean as a mechanism for Beaufort Gyre stabilization. J. Geophys. Res., 123:149–165, doi:10.1002/2017JC013282, 2018.
Alkire, M.B., J. Morison, A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, M. Steele, C. Peralta-Ferriz, and S. Dickinson, A meteoric water budget for the Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122, doi:10.1002/2017JC012807, 2017.
Bhatt, U. S., D. A. Walker, M. K. Raynolds, P. A. Bieniek, H. E. Epstein, J. C. Comiso, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, M. Steele, W. Ermold, and J. Zhang, Changing seasonality of panarctic tundra vegetation in relationship to climatic variables, Environ. Res. Lett., 12(5), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0b, 2017.
Zhang, J., Steele, M., Runciman, K., Dewey, S., Morison, J., Lee, C., Rainville, L., Cole, S., Krishfield, R., Timmermans, M.L. and Toole, J., The Beaufort Gyre intensification and stabilization: A model‐observation synthesis, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(11), 7933-7952, doi:10.1002/2016JC012196, 2016.
Zhang, J., H. Stern, B. Hwang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and M. Stark, Modeling the seasonal evolution of the Arctic sea ice floe size distribution, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 4, doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000126, 2016.
2016), An inverse modeling study of circulation in the Eastern Bering Sea during 2007–2010, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121,3970–3989, doi:10.1002/2015JC011287.
, , , , , and (Banas, N. S., J. Zhang, R. G. Campbell, R. N. Sambrotto, M. W. Lomas, E. Sherr, B. Sherr, C. Ashjian, D. Stoecker, and E. J. Lessard, Spring plankton dynamics in the Eastern Bering Sea, 1971-2050: Mechanisms of interannual variability diagnosed with a numerical model, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JC011449, 2016.
Jin, M., E. E. Popova, J. Zhang,, R. Ji, D. Pendleton, Ø. Varpe, A. Yool, and Y.J. Lee, Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 934-948, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2016.
Schweiger, A. J., and J. Zhang (2015), Accuracy of short-term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice-ocean model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi: 10.1002/2015jc011273.
Bieniek, P., U. Bhatt, D. Walker, M. Raynolds, J. Comiso, H. Epstein, J. Pinzon, C. Tucker, R. Thoman, H. Tran, N. Mölders, M. Steele, J. Zhang, and W. Ermold, The role of climate drivers in the seasonality of Alaska coastal tundra vegetation change, Earth Interactions, 19, doi:10.1175/EI-D-15-0013.1, 2015.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. I. Cullather, W. Wang, J. Zhang, and C. M. Bitz, Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8042-8048, doi:10.1002/2015GL0658, 2015.
Bieniek, P.A., U.S. Bhatt, D.A. Walker, M.K. Raynolds, J.C. Comiso, H.E. Epstein, J.E. Pinzon, C.J. Tucker, R.L. Thoman, H. Tran, N. Mölders, M. Steele, J. Zhang, and W. Ermold, Climate drivers linked to changing seasonality of Alaska coastal tundra vegetation productivity. Earth Interactions, 19, No. 19, 2015.
Collow, T.W., W. Wang, A. Kumar, and J. Zhang, Improving Arctic sea ice prediction using PIOMAS initial sea ice thickness in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4618-4630, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0097.1, 2015.
Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Sea ice floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone: Theory and numerical experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2015.
Steele, M., S. Dickinson, J. Zhang, and R.W. Lindsay, Seasonal ice loss in the Beaufort Sea: Toward synchrony and prediction, J. Geophy. Res., 120, 1118-1132, doi:10.1002/2014JC010247, 2015.
Miller, R.L. and others including J. Zhang, CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 441-477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266, 2014.
Schmidt, G.A. and others including J. Zhang, Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 141-184, doi:10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Zhang, J., C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, and V. Hill, The influence of sea ice and snow cover and nutrient availability on the formation of massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the Chukchi Sea, Deep-Sea Res. II, 118, 122-135, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.02.008, 2015.
Nazarenko, L. and others including J. Zhang, Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, 244-267, doi:10.1002/2014MS000403, 2015.
Lindsay, R., M. Wensnahan, A. Schweiger, and J Zhang, 2014, Evaluation of seven different atmospheric reanalysis products in the Arctic, J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-0014.1.
Zhang, J., Modeling the impact of wind intensification on Antarctic sea ice volume, J. Climate, 27, 202-214, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00139.1, 2014.
Zhang, J., C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, V. Hill, Y.H. Spitz, and M. Steele, The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119, 297–312, doi:10.1002/2013JC009301, 2014.
Peralta‐Ferriz, C., J.H. Morison, J.M. Wallace, J.A. Bonin, and J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean circulation patterns revealed by GRACE, J. Climate, 27, 1445-1468, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00013.1, 2014.
Martin, T., M. Steele, and J. Zhang, Seasonality and long-term trend of Arctic Ocean surface stress in a model, J. Geophy. Res., 119, 1723-1738, doi:10.1002/2013JC009425, 2014.
Wang, J., H. Eicken, Y. Yu, X. Bai, J. Zhang, H. Hu, D-R. Wang, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, and J. Overland, Abrupt climate changes and emerging ice-ocean processes in the Pacific Arctic region and the Bering Sea, Chapter 4, in The Pacific Arctic Region: Ecosystem Status and Trends in a Rapidly Changing Environment, J. M. Grebmeier and W. Maslowski (eds.), doi 10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_4, 2014.
Clement Kinney, J., W. Maslowski, Y. Aksenov, B. de Cuevas, J. Jakacki, A. Nguyen, R. Osinski, M. Steele, R. A. Woodgate, and J. Zhang, On the flow through Bering Strait: A synthesis of model results and observations, Chapter 7, in The Pacific Arctic Region: Ecosystem Status and Trends in a Rapidly Changing Environment, J. M. Grebmeier and W. Maslowski (eds.), doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_7, 2014.
Laxon, W.S, K. A. Giles, A. L. Ridout, D. J. Wingham, R. W., R.Cullen, R. Kwok, A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, C. Haas, S. Hendricks, R. Krishfield, N.Kurtz, S Farrell, M Davidson, CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/grl.5019, 2013.
Huntington, H.P., G. Noongwook, N.A. Bond, B. Benter, J.A. Snyder, and J. Zhang, The influence of wind and ice on spring walrus hunting success on St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Deep-Sea Res. II, 94, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.016, 312-322, 2013.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and M. Steele, The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50190, 2013.
Danielson, S., T. Weingartner, K. Aagaard, J. Zhang, and R. Woodgate, Circulation on the central Bering Sea shelf, July 2008 to July 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C10003, doi:10.1029/2012JC008303, 2012.
Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and S. Mangiameli, Towards seasonal prediction of the distribution and extent of cold bottom waters on the Bering Sea shelf, Deep-Sea Res. II, 65-70, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.02.023, 58-71, 2012.