Axel Schweiger

Dr. Schweiger’s research focuses on sea ice, clouds and radiation in the Arctic. He is using satellite data, models and in-situ observations to improve our understanding of sea ice and cloud variability. He has developed the PSC Arctic Ice Volume Page which provides monthly updated total Arctic Ice Volume estimates based on the PIOMAS model. He has worked on the validation, improvements, and applications of PIOMAS to a variety of problems. He is an investigator in the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey Project (SIZRS) that utilizes US-Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness flights make Atmospheric and Oceanographic measurements of the seasonal ice zone of the Beaufort Sea and targets the improved understanding of the changes in the Arctic system as sea ice retreats. Recent interests include the role of the circulation changes in the Arctic in driving sea ice loss. He has worked on algorithm development for the retrieval of clouds and atmospheric profiles and generated the the TOVS Polar Pathfinder data set, a 20-year data set of polar temperature, humidity profiles and cloud information. Previous research includes work on microwave-based sea ice concentration algorithms and the application of artificial intelligence methods to remote sensing problems. Dr. Schweiger has been with the Polar Science Center since 1992. He was the PSC Chair from 2009-2021.

In The News

New Leadership at PSC
On Oct 1, 2021 after 12.5 years at the helm of PSC, Axel Schweiger stepped back from his role as Chair of PSC. PSC sea ice researcher Bonnie Light has taken on the leadership role.
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Last Arctic ice refuge is disappearing
November 12, 2019 – Former UW Arctic Fulbright Chair, Kent Moore with PSC researchers Axel Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang and Mike Steele on how the oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice is disappearing twice as fast as ice in the rest of the Arctic Ocean.
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Nexus Media: Century-Old Ship Logs Show How Much Ice the Arctic Has Lost Old, handwritten logbooks prove computer models are right — the Arctic has lost a frightening amount of sea ice
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Popular Mechanics: How Century-Old Ice Data Is Helping Track a Melting Arctic
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Century-old ship logs reveal extent of today’s drastic Arctic melt
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Century-Old Ship Logs Show How Much Ice the Arctic Has Lost
September 17, 2019 – Research by Axel Schweiger and Jinlun Zhang in Collaboration with Kevin Wood from JISAO reconstructs sea ice volume and thickness since 1901.
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Shipping logs show how quickly Arctic sea ice is melting
August 13, 2019 – The Economist covers research by Axel Schweiger and Jinlun Zhang in collaboration with Kevin Wood at JISAO. Reconstruction of sea ice thickness and volume since 1901 uses logs from old US revenue cutters traveling in the Arctic in the early 20th century.
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The Arctic Ocean has lost 95 percent of its oldest ice — a startling sign of what’s to come
The Arctic Ocean has lost 95 percent of its oldest ice — a startling sign of what’s to comeIf the thinning trend continues, scientists fear an added boost to global warming.Chris Mooney of the Washington Post talked with Axel Schweiger and other scientists about sea ice loss in the Arctic
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EDITOR’S HIGHLIGHTS – A possible link between winter Arctic sea ice decline and a collapse of the Beaufort High?
Axel Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang, and Mike Steele are co-authors on an article that earned the Editor’s Highlight for AGU’s recent Geophysical Research Letters. Read on to learn why the article, Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?, drew such attention…
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Up to half of Arctic melting can be explained by natural changes
The Christian Science Monitor reports on research findings that a large portion of sea ice decline in the Arctic is caused by natural changes. The study was recently published in Nature Climate Change and CSM interviews some of the authors Qinghua Ding, Axel Schweiger and David Battisti.
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Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice a combination of climate change and natural variability
UW Today talks with Qinghua Ding and Axel Schweiger about a new study published in Nature Climate Change of how natural variability affects sea ice loss in the Arctic. Ding, now a PSC affiliate, along with Schweiger and other colleagues from UW and NOAA used decades of data to examine the contribution of the atmospheric circulation to Arctic sea-ice variability.
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Seattle climate scientists spread word on warming, skip politics
Are climate scientists able to talk about their research without politics today? The Seattle Times talks with PSC researchers Axel Schwieger, Mike Steele, and Harry Stern who try to inform the public of the science behind climate change.
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He created a beloved blog about the melting Arctic. But it got harder and harder to write
The Washington Post reports that although “Arctic Sea Ice Blog: Interesting News and Data” will be going on hiatus, the Arctic Sea Ice Forum will remain open and monthly PIOMAS updates will continue. Axel Schweiger comments on how the blog and the PSC dataset has helped create a thoughtful and detailed real-time public discourse.
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You can now calculate how much Arctic sea ice you’re destroying with your CO2 emissions
PSC Chair Axel Schweiger comments on a new study that allows the calculation of a “personal sea ice footprint”.
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On Thin Ice
Scientific American reports on a new study deriving ice thickness trends from measurements by the Polar Science Center’s Ron Lindsay and Axel Schweiger’s article published in The Cryosphere.
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Stronger winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice
A new modeling study conducted by Dr. Jinlun Zhang to be published in the Journal of Climate shows that stronger polar winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice, even in a warming climate.
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On thin ice: As Arctic Ocean warms, a scramble to understand its weather
Increasing summer ice melt in the Arctic Ocean could shift global weather patterns and make polar waters more navigable. But scientists say forecasting Arctic ice and weather remains a massive challenge. The prospect of more ice-free water during Arctic Ocean summers has triggered efforts to improve ice and weather forecasts at the top of the world

Download GRL manuscript:
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Scientists chuck instruments off planes into cracks in Arctic sea ice
As sea ice disappears in the Arctic Ocean, the U.S. Coast Guard is teaming with scientists to explore this new frontier by deploying scientific equipment through cracks in the ice from airplanes hundreds of feet in the air.
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A really bad year for Arctic Sea Ice: Science News, 2011-10-06
PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume and excerpts from an interview with Axel Schweiger are covered in Science News. Click to read full story
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Summer Melt Among the worst ever: Science News, 2011-09-14
Our recent paper talking about the uncertainty in Arctic Sea Ice Volume is covered in Science News. Click to read full story
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The Guardian, 2011-09-11
The Guardian cites PIOMAS sea ice volume in the context of a new sea ice minimum reached according to data from the University of Bremen. Click here for full story.
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Selected Projects

Response of Cloud Cover to Changes in Sea Ice
Clouds play a major role in the arctic surface energy balance controlling the growth and melt of sea ice. At the same time the processes involved in the formation, maintenance and dissipation of cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean are thought to be strongly influenced by the sea ice itself. This project will advance the understanding of this interaction and feedback by asking: What is the response of Arctic clouds to diminishing sea ice?
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Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly
The Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly time series is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) developed at APL/PSC. Updates will be generated at approximately monthly intervals.
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Arctic Surface Air Temperatures for the Past 100 Years
This project will produce authoritative SAT data sets covering the Arctic Ocean from 1901 to present, which will be used to better understand Arctic climate change.
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TOVS Polar Pathfinder Path-P Project
The purpose of this project is to improve satellite retrievals of atmospheric temperature, humidity and clouds. Retrievals are based on the physical-statistical retrieval method of Chedin et al. (1985, Improved Iteration Inversion Algorithm, 3I). The method has been improved for use in sea ice-covered areas (Francis 1994) and the data set has been designed to address the particular needs of the Polar research community. The data set represents the so called Path-P as designated by the TOVS Science Working Group.

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Selected Publications

Moore, G., Steele, M., Schweiger, A.J., Zhang, J., and Laidre, K.L., Thick and old sea ice in the Beaufort Sea during summer 2020/21 was associated with enhanced transport. Commun Earth Environ 3, 198, doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00530-6, 2022.
Li, Z., Q. Ding, M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, Recent upper Arctic Ocean warming expedited by summertime atmospheric processes. Nat. Commun., 13, 362, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28047-8, 2022.
Schweiger, A., M. Steele, J. Zhang, G.W.K. Moore, and K. Laidre, Accelerated sea ice loss in the Wandel Sea points to a change in the Arctic’s Last Ice Area, Nature Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 122, doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00197-5, 2021.
Zhang, J., Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, & A. Schweiger, Biophysical consequences of a relaxing Beaufort gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085990, doi:10.1029/2019gl085990, 2020.
Baxter, I., Ding, Q., Schweiger, A., L’Heureux, M., Baxter, S., Wang, T., . . . Lu, J. (2019). How Tropical Pacific Surface Cooling Contributed to Accelerated Sea Ice Melt from 2007 to 2012 as Ice Is Thinned by Anthropogenic Forcing. Journal of Climate, 32(24), 8583-8602. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0783.1
Moore, G. W. K., Schweiger, A., Zhang, J., & Steele, M., Spatiotemporal variability of sea ice in the arctic’s last ice area. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083722, 2019.
Schweiger, A.J., K.R. Wood, and J. Zhang, 2019: Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction. J. of Climate, 32, 4731-4752, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1
Moore, G.W.K., A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, and M. Steele, What caused the remarkable February 2018 North Greenland Polynya? Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, doi:10.1029/2018GL080902, 2018.
Ding, Q., Schweiger, A., L’Heureux, M., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., Johnson, N. C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Po-Chedley, S., Zhang, Q., Harnos, K., Bushuk, M., Markle, B., and Baxter, I. (2018), Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations. Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0256-8
Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Webster, B. Light, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, and Y. Spitz, Melt pond conditions on declining Arctic sea ice over 1979-2016: Model development, validation, and results, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 123, doi:10.1029/2018JC014298, 2018.
Stern H.L., A.J. Schweiger, M. Stark, J. Zhang, M. Steele, B. Hwang; Seasonal evolution of the sea-ice floe size distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 6(1):48, doi:10.1525/elementa.305, 2018.
Moore, G.W.K., Schweiger, A., Zhang, J., & Steele, M.; Collapse of the 2017 winter Beaufort High: A response to thinning sea ice? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2860–2869, doi:10.1002/2017GL076446, 2018.
Stern, H., A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, and M. Steele, On reconciling disparate studies of the sea-ice floe size distribution, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 6:49, doi:10.1525/elementa.304, 2018.
Alkire, M.B., J. Morison, A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, M. Steele, C. Peralta-Ferriz, and S. Dickinson, A meteoric water budget for the Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122, doi:10.1002/2017JC012807, 2017.
Liu, Z., Schweiger, A. (2017), Synoptic conditions, clouds, and sea ice melt-onset in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seasonal Ice Zone, J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0887.1 .
Ding, Q., A. Schweiger, M. L’Heureux, D. S. Battisti, S. Po-Chedley, N. C. Johnson, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, K. Harnos, Q. Zhang, R. Eastman and E. J. Steig (2017), Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3241
Zhang, J., H. Stern, B. Hwang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and M. Stark, Modeling the seasonal evolution of the Arctic sea ice floe size distribution, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 4, doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000126, 2016.
Schweiger, A. J., and J. Zhang (2015), Accuracy of short-term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice-ocean model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi: 10.1002/2015jc011273.
Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Sea ice floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone: Theory and numerical experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2015.
Lindsay, R. and A. Schweiger, Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations, The Cryosphere, 9, 269-283, doi:10.5194/tc-9-269-2015, 2015
Liu, Z., A. Schweiger, and R. Lindsay (2015), Observations and Modeling of Atmospheric Profiles in the Arctic Seasonal Ice Zone, Monthly Weather Review, 143(1), 39-53.
Stroeve, J., A. Barrett, M. Serreze, and A. Schweiger (2014), Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness, Cryosphere, 8(5), 1839-1854.
Lindsay, R., M. Wensnahan, A. Schweiger, and J Zhang, 2014, Evaluation of seven different atmospheric reanalysis products in the Arctic, J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-0014.1.
Laxon, W.S, K. A. Giles, A. L. Ridout, D. J. Wingham, R. W., R.Cullen, R. Kwok, A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, C. Haas, S. Hendricks, R. Krishfield, N.Kurtz, S Farrell, M Davidson, CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/grl.5019, 2013.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and M. Steele, The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50190, 2013.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and I. Rigor, 2012: Recent changes in the dynamic properties of declining Arctic sea ice: A model study. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 20, doi:10.1029/2012GL053545.
Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, J. Zhang, M. Steele, H. Stern, R. Kwok, Uncertainty in modeled arctic sea ice volume, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C00D06, doi:10.1029/2011JC007084, 2011.
Zhang, J.L., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20505, doi:10.1029/2010gl044988, 2010.
Vavrus, S., D. Waliser, A. Schweiger, and J. Francis, “Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4”, Clim Dynam, 33, 1099-1115, 2009.
Lindsay, R. W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Arctic sea ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend, J. Climate, 22, 165-176, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2521.1, 2009.
Schweiger, A.J., J. Zhang, R.W. Lindsay, and M. Steele, Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10503, doi:10.1029/2008gl033463, 2008.
Zhang J., M. Steele, R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, J. Morison, Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08502, doi:10.1029/2008GL033244.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, What Drove the Dramatic Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice During Summer 2007?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11505, doi:10.1029/2008GL034005, 2008.
Schweiger, A.J., Lindsay, R.W., Vavrus, S., Francis, J.A., “Relationships between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds during Autumn”, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2156.1, 2008a.
Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, and M.A. Steele, Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02023, doi:10.1029/2007JC004259, 2008.
Perovich D.K., S.V. Nghiem, T. Markus, A. Schweiger, “Seasonal evolution and interannual variability of the local solar energy absorbed by the Arctic sea ice-ocean system”, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112 (C3): Art. No. C03005, 2007.
Liu, Y. H., J.R. Key, A. J. Schweiger and J. A Francis, “Characteristics of satellite-derived clear-sky atmospheric temperature inversion strength in the Arctic 1980-96”, J Climate, 19(19), 4902-4913, 2006.
Schweiger, A.J., “Changes in seasonal cloud cover over the Arctic seas from satellite and surface observations“, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, 10.1029/2004GL020067, 2004.

Axel Schweiger

In The News

New Leadership at PSC

Last Arctic ice refuge is disappearing

Nexus Media: Century-Old Ship Logs Show How Much Ice the Arctic Has Lost Old, handwritten logbooks prove computer models are right — the Arctic has lost a frightening amount of sea ice

Popular Mechanics: How Century-Old Ice Data Is Helping Track a Melting Arctic

Century-old ship logs reveal extent of today’s drastic Arctic melt

Century-Old Ship Logs Show How Much Ice the Arctic Has Lost

Shipping logs show how quickly Arctic sea ice is melting

The Arctic Ocean has lost 95 percent of its oldest ice — a startling sign of what’s to come

EDITOR’S HIGHLIGHTS – A possible link between winter Arctic sea ice decline and a collapse of the Beaufort High?

Up to half of Arctic melting can be explained by natural changes

Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice a combination of climate change and natural variability

Seattle climate scientists spread word on warming, skip politics

He created a beloved blog about the melting Arctic. But it got harder and harder to write

You can now calculate how much Arctic sea ice you’re destroying with your CO2 emissions

On Thin Ice

Stronger winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice

On thin ice: As Arctic Ocean warms, a scramble to understand its weather

Scientists chuck instruments off planes into cracks in Arctic sea ice

A really bad year for Arctic Sea Ice: Science News, 2011-10-06

Summer Melt Among the worst ever: Science News, 2011-09-14

The Guardian, 2011-09-11

Selected Projects

Response of Cloud Cover to Changes in Sea Ice

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly

Arctic Surface Air Temperatures for the Past 100 Years

TOVS Polar Pathfinder Path-P Project

Selected Publications

Contact info Axel Schweiger

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