Forecasting Changes in Habitat Use by Bowhead Whales in Response to Arctic Climate Change
PI: Dr. Elizabeth Holmes Co-Investigator for APL: Jinlun Zhang Our proposed work builds upon a forecasting system developed for a similar baleen whale species, the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) (Pendleton 2010, Pendleton et. al. 2009, Pershing et al. 2009, Pershing et al. 2009). This system, developed with funding from the NASA Applied Sciences program, generated weekly predictions, at regional and local spatial scales, of potential right whale habitat. Predictive maps were generated from satellite-derived sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, a satellite-driven zooplankton abundance (right whale prey) model, bathymetry, and aerial and acoustic detections of whales. Predictive accuracy of habitat maps was good (Pendleton et. al. 2009). This prototype system was used to assess the impact of moving shipping lanes in order to reduce risk of whale-vessel collisions, a primary threat to right whales. We propose to extend this approach to bowhead whales by using output from a currently supported NASA project (Jinlun Zhang, The pan-Arctic Biology/Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS) model). BIOMAS has generated predictions of zooplankton and sea-ice extent, along with a host of other environmental variables, from 1988 to present. Model output from the time and location of bowhead whale sightings, from aerial and acoustic surveys, will be used to train an environmental niche model (ENM) that characterizes bowhead whale habitat. Two types of ENM techniques will be used, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy density estimation, to produce seasonal and long range (5-10yr) estimates of bowhead whale distribution in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas. Once predictions have been validated, we will use forecasts for bowhead whale occurrence to help evaluate conservation actions and develop strategies for minimizing human-whale interactions, especially as Arctic sea-ice extent and whale populations change in the coming century. |
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