Posts Tagged «volumeshow»

PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume and excerpts from an interview with Axel Schweiger are covered in Science News. Click to  read full story

In mid-September Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extent and volume. There are annual fluctuations — 2012 was a record low for both measures — but reports of a recent ‘rebound’ are short-sighted. Axel Schweiger explains why the downward long-term trend is clear.

The Arctic Ocean is gaining open water each summer, with some scientists predicting that the warming planet will see an Arctic Ocean that’s completely ice-free in late summer by around the middle of this century.

The BBC article Climate tech fixes urged for Arctic methane incorrectly identifies the University of Washington as the source for a prediction of the disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic in the next few years.

Analysis from the University of Washington, in Seattle, using ice thickness data from submarines and satellites, suggests that Septembers could be ice-free within just a few years.”

This is factually incorrect. The graph apparently comes from an unidentified online  blog posting which uses some of our data to conduct its analysis. This analysis extrapolates PIOMAS ice volume data to arrive at a date when sea ice might first disappear. This extrapolation represents the analysis and judgement of the unidentified poster of the graph. The University of Washington was not involved in this analysis. We have informed the BBC and asked for a correction.

Update: The BBC has corrected the news piece to reflect the distinction between the use of PIOMAS data and the extrapolation performed elsewhere.

Europe’s Cryosat mission is now watching the ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice with high precision….Tuesday’s release shows a complete seasonal cycle, from October 2010, when the Arctic Ocean was beginning to freeze up following the summer melt, right through to March 2011, when the sea ice was approaching peak thickness. Cryosat found the volume (area multiplied by thickness) of sea ice in the central Arctic in March 2011 to have been 14,500 cubic kilometres. This figure is very similar to that suggested by PIOMAS (Panarctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System), an influential computer model that has been used to estimate Arctic sea ice volume

The dramatic melt expected over the next week signals that global warming is having a major impact on the polar region

The Washington Post reports that although “Arctic Sea Ice Blog: Interesting News and Data” will be going on hiatus, the Arctic Sea Ice Forum will remain open and monthly PIOMAS updates will continue. Axel Schweiger comments on how the blog and the PSC dataset has helped create a thoughtful and detailed real-time public discourse.

Kwok, R., and D.A. Rothrock,’ Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958-2008′, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035, 2009.

Kwok, R., G.F. Cunningham, M. Wensnahan, I. Rigor, H.J. Zwally, and D. Yi,’ Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 2003-2008′, J. Geophys. Res., 114, doi:10.1029/2009JC005312, 2009.

Lindsay, R. W., 2010: A new sea ice thickness climate data record, Eos, 44, 405–406.

Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, “Assimilation of ice concentration in an ice-ocean model”, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 23, 742-749, 2006.

Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger and M.A. Steele, “Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean”, J. Geophys. Res., 113(C2), 2008.

Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M.A. Steele and H. Stern, “Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend”, J. Clim., 22, 165-176, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2521., 2009.

Increasing summer ice melt in the Arctic Ocean could shift global weather patterns and make polar waters more navigable. But scientists say forecasting Arctic ice and weather remains a massive challenge. The prospect of more ice-free water during Arctic Ocean summers has triggered efforts to improve ice and weather forecasts at the top of the world

Download GRL manuscript:

Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, J. Zhang, M. Steele, H. Stern, Uncertainty in modeled arctic sea ice volume, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2011JC007084, 2011

Schweiger, A.J., J. Zhang, R.W. Lindsay, and M. Steele, “Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007?”, Geophys. Res. Lett, 35, 10, 6, doi: L10503,10.1029/2008gl033463, 2008b.

Stroeve, J., A. Barrett, M. Serreze, and A. Schweiger (2014), Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness, Cryosphere, 8(5), 1839-1854.

Our recent paper talking about the uncertainty in Arctic Sea Ice Volume is covered in Science News. Click to read full story

The Guardian cites PIOMAS sea ice volume in the context of a new sea ice minimum reached according to data from the University of Bremen. Click here for full story.

PSC Chair Axel Schweiger comments on a new study that allows the calculation of a “personal sea ice footprint”.

Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and M. Steele, The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, doi: 10.1002/grl.50190, 2013.

Zhang, J., and M. Steele, “Effect of vertical mixing on the Atlantic Water layer circulation in the Arctic Ocean”, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C04S04, doi:10.1029/2006JC003732,2007.

Zhang, J, R.W Lindsay, M. Steele and A. Schweiger, “What Drove the Dramatic Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice During Summer 2007?”, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2008GL034005.

Zhang J., M. Steele, R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, J. Morison, “Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008”, Journal of Polar Science,submitted 2008.

Zhang, J.L. and D.A. Rothrock, “Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates“, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 845-861, 2003.

Zhang, J.L., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, “Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability“, Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L20505, doi: 10.1029/2010gl044988, 2010.