October 9, 2018

  GFS Forecast: analysis time: 12Z 2018-10-06 :: valid time: 22Z 2018-10-09 ( Alaska LT: Tue. 2018-10-09 14:00PM)

Links to plots Below

Sea ice contours: 15% (blue), 50% (black), 90% (red)

2-m temperature contour: -1.8 °C

U/V transect contour: 0 m/s 

Update [18:20PM, Fri. Oct. 6, 2018 PST]:  

Similar to previous forecast. Low cloud cover with ceiling height above 1000 ft. Westerly wind near ice edge and northerly to the south. Surface air temperature is warm, slightly below 0 °C.  

Update [14:20PM, Fri. Oct. 5, 2018 PST]:  

The low pressure system moves much farther northeast. Now there is high pressure system west of Beaufort Sea. Now the winds are westerlies near sea ice edge and northerly to the south.  The surface air temperature drops below 0 °C north of 72 °N. The LLJ near sea ice edge is much weaker. At this point, it is likely future forecast will remain similar to the current forecast. 


Update [15:20PM, Thur. Oct. 4, 2018 PST]:  

The low pressure system is still there and its southwesterly winds bring warm water and air toward sea ice edge. Low cloud cover is present in both GFS and WRF. The LLJ is still near the ice edge. 

Update [12:20PM, Mon. Oct. 2, 2018 PST]:  

Sea ice edge slightly north of 77 °N. Two low pressure systems striding across the north pole and one of them brings strong westerly winds along 150 °W. The core of the low level wind jet just to the south of the ice edge at 600 m. Low clouds extend from below 1000 ft to 3000 ft, but surface visibility is over 5 miles at most places and ceiling height is above 1000 ft. Water is still warm and the air temperature is around -1 °C. 


    • Flight information

2018-010-09 14PM Alaska LT

2018-10-09 14PM Alaska LT

  • Pan-Arctic maps

Sea ice concentration at analysis time

Mean sea leve pressure at valid time

700 hPa Geopotential Height

700 hPa temperature

700 hPa relative humidity

700 hPa wind speed

Pressure on 2PVU surface

Pressure on 2PVU surface

Low-level cloud cover

Mid-level cloud cover


  • Beaufort and Chukchi seasonal ice zone (the map is centered at 150 °W)

Sea ice concentration at analysis time

Mean sea leve pressure at valid time

2-m air temperature

2-m relative humidty

low cloud fraction

middle cloud fraction


  • Transects along 150 °W


  • Flight conditions at different altitudes along 150 °W