August 14, 2018

  GFS Forecast: analysis time: 12Z 2018-08-10 :: valid time: 22Z 2018-08-14 ( Alaska LT: Tue. 2018-08-14 14:00PM)

Links to plots Below

Sea ice contours: 15% (blue), 50% (black), 90% (red)

2-m temperature contour: -1.8 °C

U/V transect contour: 0 m/s 

Update [11:49PM, Sun. Aug. 12, 2018 PST]:  

Conditions similar to previous forecasts. The LLJ is shifted to the south (72 °N) and at higher altitude. 

Update [12:00PM, Fri. Aug. 10, 2018 PST]:  

Sea ice edge is north of 76°N. High relative humidity north of 72 °N, although the visibility is still high, over 5 miles. Low clouds cover the entire region. A warm front is to the west of 150 °W. Surface winds are southwesterly to the south and southerly to the north along 150°W. Winds veer to northerly and northwesterly at 700 hPa (~10,000 ft). Around 76 °N near 500 m, there is a wind maximum (not too strong though) near sea ice edge, which is likely related to the interaction between the surface low to the northwest and the eastern extension of the surface high over the Siberia. 

  • Pan-Arctic maps

Sea ice concentration at analysis time

Mean sea leve pressure at valid time

700 hPa Geopotential Height

700 hPa temperature

700 hPa relative humidity

700 hPa wind speed

Pressure on 2PVU surface

Pressure on 2PVU surface

Low-level cloud cover

Mid-level cloud cover


  • Beaufort and Chukchi seasonal ice zone (the map is centered at 150 °W)

Sea ice concentration at analysis time

Mean sea leve pressure at valid time

2-m air temperature

2-m relative humidty

low cloud fraction

middle cloud fraction


  • Transects along 150 °W


  • Flight conditions at different altitudes along 150 °W