Hindcast and Forecast

MIZMAS ensemble seasonal forecast consists of seven ensemble members each of which uses a set of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric forcing fields from one of last seven years, representing recent climate. If the current climate is close to any of the last seven years, it would be captured by the forecast system. Each ensemble prediction starts with the same initial ice–ocean conditions obtained by a near real-time hindcast that assimilates satellite ice concentration and SST data to obtain the “best possible” initial conditions. While the seven ensemble members give seven scenarios of prediction, the median of the seven ensemble members is considered as the OUTLOOK or prediction (Zhang et al., 2008).

Figures below are some ensemble members and ensemble median (OUTLOOK) of MIZMAS seasonal forecast of 2016 sea ice thickness and edge (15% concentration, black line); white line is satellite ice edge in 2015; click to enlarge…






Important notice

The purpose of the seasonal predictions of arctic sea ice is for scientific research and education only. There are many uncertainties with the predictions and the results must be viewed with caution. The work is conducted at the Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington. Neither the US Government nor the University of Washington nor any individual person makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any responsibility or liability for the use of the prediction results or any other results in this web site.