Dr. Zhang is interested in quantifying and understanding climate change in the Polar Regions. He investigates the properties of polar ice-ocean systems by developing large-scale sea ice and ocean models such as the Pan-arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), the Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS), and the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS). He also studies the impact of changes in sea ice on marine planktonic ecosystems by developing biophysical models such as the coupled Biology-Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS). He has developed efficient sea ice dynamics models that are particularly useful for stable, high-resolution modeling. He is interested in developing next-generation sea ice models which capture anisotropic nature of ice dynamics/mechanics and explicitly simulate both ice thickness distribution and floe size distribution jointly. His research results have been published in the Journal of Physical Oceanography, the Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, Monthly Weather Review, Geophysical Research Letters, Ocean Modeling, Deep Sea Research, and other scientific journals. Dr. Zhang joined the Laboratory in 1994.
About Jinlun Zhang
In The News
A new modeling study conducted by Dr. Jinlun Zhang to be published in the Journal of Climate shows that stronger polar winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice, even in a warming climate.read more »
The overarching goal of the MIZMAS project is to enhance our understanding of MIZ processes and interactions, and to strengthen our prediction capability of future climate change, particularly the changes in both the ITD and the FSD, in the CBS. We propose numerical investigations of the historical and contemporary changes in the sea ice and upper ocean of the CBSMIZ. We also plan to investigate future changes of the CBSMIZ under global warming scenarios. These investigations involve new and potentially transformative theoretical and numerical work to develop, implement, and validate a new coupled ice–ocean Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS) that will enhance the representation of the unique MIZ processes by incorporating a FSD and corresponding model improvements.read more »
Significant changes in arctic climate have been detected in recent years. One of the most striking changes is the decline of sea ice concurrent with changes in atmospheric circulation and increased surface air temperature.read more »
Zhang, J., Steele, M., Runciman, K., Dewey, S., Morison, J., Lee, C., Rainville, L., Cole, S., Krishfield, R., Timmermans, M.L. and Toole, J., 2016. The Beaufort Gyre intensification and stabilization: A model‐observation synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(11), pp.7933-7952. doi:10.1002/2016JC012196
2016), An inverse modeling study of circulation in the Eastern Bering Sea during 2007–2010, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121,3970–3989, doi:10.1002/2015JC011287., , , , , and (
Banas, N. S., J. Zhang, R. G. Campbell, R. N. Sambrotto, M. W. Lomas, E. Sherr, B. Sherr, C. Ashjian, D. Stoecker, and E. J. Lessard, Spring plankton dynamics in the Eastern Bering Sea, 1971-2050: Mechanisms of interannual variability diagnosed with a numerical model, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JC011449, 2016.
Jin, M., E. E. Popova, J. Zhang,, R. Ji, D. Pendleton, Ø. Varpe, A. Yool, and Y.J. Lee, Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 934-948, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2016.
Schweiger, A. J., and J. Zhang (2015), Accuracy of short-term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice-ocean model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi: 10.1002/2015jc011273.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. I. Cullather, W. Wang, J. Zhang, and C. M. Bitz, Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8042-8048, doi:10.1002/2015GL0658, 2015.
Bieniek, P. A., U. S. Bhatt, D. A. Walker, M. K. Raynolds, J. C. Comiso, H. E. Epstein, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, R. L. Thoman, H. Tran, N. Mölders, M. Steele, J. Zhang, and W. Ermold, Climate drivers linked to changing seasonality of Alaska coastal tundra vegetation productivity. Earth Interactions, 19, No. 19, 2015.
Collow, T.W., W. Wang, A. Kumar, and J. Zhang, Improving Arctic sea ice prediction using PIOMAS initial sea ice thickness in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4618-4630, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0097.1, 2015.
Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Sea ice floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone: Theory and numerical experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2015
Steele, M., S. Dickinson, J. Zhang, and R.W. Lindsay, Seasonal ice loss in the Beaufort Sea: Toward synchrony and prediction, J. Geophy. Res., 120, 1118-1132, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010247, 2015.
Miller, R.L. and others including J. Zhang, CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 441-477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266, 2014.
Schmidt, G.A. and others including J. Zhang, Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 141-184, doi:10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Zhang, J., C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, and V. Hill, The influence of sea ice and snow cover and nutrient availability on the formation of massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the Chukchi Sea, Deep-Sea Res. II, 118, 122-135, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.02.008, 2015.
Nazarenko, L. and others including J. Zhang, Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, 244-267, doi:10.1002/2014MS000403, 2015.
Lindsay, R., M. Wensnahan, A. Schweiger, and J Zhang, 2014, Evaluation of seven different atmospheric reanalysis products in the Arctic, J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-0014.1.
Zhang, J., Modeling the impact of wind intensification on Antarctic sea ice volume, J. Climate, 27, 202-214, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00139.1, 2014.
Zhang, J., C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, V. Hill, Y.H. Spitz, and M. Steele, The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves, J. Geophy. Res., 119, 1-16, doi:10.1002/2013JC009301, 2014.
Peralta‐Ferriz, C., J.H. Morison, J.M. Wallace, J.A. Bonin, and J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean circulation patterns revealed by GRACE, J. Climate, 27, 1445-1468, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00013.1, 2014.
Martin, T., M. Steele, and J. Zhang, Seasonality and long-term trend of Arctic Ocean surface stress in a model, J. Geophy. Res., 119, 1723-1738, doi:10.1002/2013JC009425, 2014.
Wang, J., H. Eicken, Y. Yu, X. Bai, J. Zhang, H. Hu, D-R. Wang, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, and J. Overland, Abrupt climate changes and emerging ice-ocean processes in the Pacific Arctic region and the Bering Sea, Chapter 4, in The Pacific Arctic Region: Ecosystem Status and Trends in a Rapidly Changing Environment, J. M. Grebmeier and W. Maslowski (eds.), doi 10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_4, 2014.
Clement Kinney, J., W. Maslowski, Y. Aksenov, B. de Cuevas, J. Jakacki, A. Nguyen, R. Osinski, M. Steele, R.A. Woodgate, and J. Zhang, On the flow through Bering Strait: A synthesis of model results and observations, Chapter 7, in The Pacific Arctic Region: Ecosystem Status and Trends in a Rapidly Changing Environment, J. M. Grebmeier and W. Maslowski (eds.), doi 10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_4, 2014.
Laxon, W.S, K. A. Giles, A. L. Ridout, D. J. Wingham, R. W., R.Cullen, R. Kwok, A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, C. Haas, S. Hendricks, R. Krishfield, N.Kurtz, S Farrell, M Davidson, CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/grl.5019, 2013.
Huntington, H.P., G. Noongwook, N.A. Bond, B. Benter, J.A. Snyder, and J. Zhang, The influence of wind and ice on spring walrus hunting success on St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Deep-Sea Res. II, 94, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.016, 312-322, 2013.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and M. Steele, The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, doi: 10.1002/grl.50190, 2013.
Danielson, S., T. Weingartner, K. Aagaard, J. Zhang, and R. Woodgate, Circulation on the central Bering Sea shelf, July 2008 to July 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C10003, doi:10.1029/2012JC008303, 2012.
Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and S. Mangiameli, Towards seasonal prediction of the distribution and extent of cold bottom waters on the Bering Sea shelf, Deep-Sea Res. II, 65-70, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.02.023, 58-71, 2012.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and I. Rigor, 2012: Recent changes in the dynamic properties of declining Arctic sea ice: A model study. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 20, doi:10.1029/2012GL053545.
Lindsay, R., C. Haas, S. Hendricks, P. Hunkeler, N. Kurtz, J. Paden, B. Panzer, J. Sonntag, J. Yungel, and J. Zhang, 2012: Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice initialized with observations of ice thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21502, doi:10.1029/2012GL053576.
Popova, E. E., A. Yool, A. C. Coward, F. Dupont, C. Deal, S. Elliott, E. Hunke, M. Jin, M. Steele, J. Zhang, What controls primary production in the Arctic Ocean? Results from an ecosystem model intercomparison, J. Geophys. Res., 117, doi:10.1029/2011JC007112, 2012.
A. Jahn, Y. Aksenov, B. A. de Cuevas, S. Häkkinen, E. Hansen, C. Herbaut, M. N. Houssais, M. Karcher, C. Lique, A. Nguyen, P. Pemberton, L. de Steur, D. Worthen, J. Zhang, 2012: Arctic freshwater: How robust are model simulations?, JGR-Ocean, 117, C00D16, doi:10.1029/2012JC007907
Peralta-Ferriz, C., J. H. Morison, J. M. Wallace and J. Zhang, (2011), A basin-coherent mode of sub-monthly variability in Arctic Ocean bottom pressure, Geophys. Res. Lett, 38, L14606, doi:10.1029/2011GL048142.
Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang, Modeling the formation and fate of the near-surface temperature maximum in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C11015, doi:10.1029/2010JC006803, 2011.
Zhang, J., R Woodgate, and R.Moritz, 2010, Sea Ice response to Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing in the Bering Sea, J.Phys.Oceanogr., 40(8), 1729-1747.
Panteleev, G., D.A.Nechaev, A.Proshutinsky, R.Woodgate, and J.Zhang, 2010, Reconstruction and analysis of the Chukchi Sea circulation in 1990-1991, J.Geophys.Res., 115, C08023
Zhang, J.L., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, “Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability“, Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L20505, doi: 10.1029/2010gl044988, 2010.
Zhang, J., Y. H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, L. Berline, and P. Matrai, Modeling the impact of declining sea ice on the arctic marine planktonic ecosystem, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C10015, doi:10.1029/2009JC005387, 2010.
Steele, M., J. Zhang, and W. Ermold, Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C11004, doi:10.1029/2009JC005849, 2010.
- Rawlins, M. A., M. Steele, M. C. Serreze, C. J. Vorosmarty, W. Ermold, R. B. Lammers, K. C. McDonald, T. M. Pavelsky, A. Shilomanov, and J. Zhang, "Tracing freshwater anomalies through the air-land-ocean system: A case study from the Mackenzie River Basin and the Beaufort Gyre", Atmos. Ocean, 47(1), 79–97, doi:10.3137/OC301, 2009.
Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M.A. Steele and H. Stern, “Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend”, J. Clim., 22, 165-176, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2521., 2009.
Wang, J., J. Zhang, E. Watanabe, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, J.E. Walsh, X. Bai, and B. Wu,’ Is the dipole anomaly a major driver to record lows in arctic summer sea ice extent?’, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, doi:10.1029/2008GL036706, 2009.
Zhang, J., M. Steele, and R. Woodgate, The role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007, J. Polar Science, 19(2), 93-107, 2008.
Zhang J., M. Steele, R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, J. Morison, “Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008”, Journal of Polar Science,submitted 2008.
Zhang, J, R.W Lindsay, M. Steele and A. Schweiger, “What Drove the Dramatic Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice During Summer 2007?”, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2008GL034005.
Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang,’ Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years’, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02614, doi:10.1029/2007GL031651, 2008.
Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger and M.A. Steele, “Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean”, J. Geophys. Res., 113(C2), 2008.
Schweiger, A.J., J. Zhang, R.W. Lindsay, and M. Steele, “Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007?”, Geophys. Res. Lett, 35, 10, 6, doi: L10503,10.1029/2008gl033463, 2008b.
Zhang, J., and M. Steele, “Effect of vertical mixing on the Atlantic Water layer circulation in the Arctic Ocean”, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C04S04, doi:10.1029/2006JC003732,2007.
Zhang, J., Increasing Antarctic sea ice under warming atmospheric and oceanic conditions, J. Climate, 20, 2515–2529, 2007.
Serreze, M. C., A. P. Barrett, A. J. Slater, M. Steele, J. Zhang and K. Trenberth,’ The large-scale energy budget of the arctic’, ”J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11122, doi:10.1029/2006JD008230, 2007.